The Event-Driven Crypto/Bitcoin Playbook – Bitcoin USD (Cryptocurrency:BTC-USD)

Existing crypto (COIN) investing literature tends to focus on either finding the “intrinsic” value of Bitcoin (BTC-USD) and other cryptocurrencies using network-based models (Metcalfe’s Law, NVT ratio etc) or technical analysis to profit off short-term fluctuations. I’ve covered the former quite extensively in my past work on Bitcoin (here, here, here, here and here).

This note is intended to offer a new perspective on Bitcoin investing by identifying event-driven strategies to take advantage of crypto-specific short-medium term dislocations in the price discovery process.

Key events I believe crypto event-driven investors should look out for include – 1) Flow events, 2) Forks, 3) Bitcoin-altcoin cycles, and 4) Credit decoupling events.

Event #1a – Flow Events – ICOs

While the crypto universe is far less prone to indexing and institutional position sizing, forced liquidation events occur far more frequently and can lead to prolonged price dislocations. The most infamous…