Bitcoin Price Not Correlated to Futures Expiration Dates: Research

The common idea that the bitcoin price drops just before the cryptocurrency futures contracts expire has no solid basis, a new study published by Cindicator suggests.

The report, titled Bitcoin Futures: Market Evolution, studied bitcoin volumes on futures and spot cryptocurrency exchanges to get an idea about the liquidity and development of the holistic trading market. It initially found the presence of institutional investors in the future markets, analyzed their past positions on the futures, compared them to the bitcoin price movements before the future expired.

The analysis is rested on a theory that future markets, with their comparatively lower volume than the spot market, are insufficient catalysts when it comes to predicting bitcoin spot prices. The Cindicator researchers, therefore, opted to study the bitcoin price action every time a future approached its expiration date.

“This is partly because of arbitrageurs trying to gain from differences between futures…